Citizens in the Holland are preparing to possibly exchange the most rightwing government in modern history with a more centrist and pragmatic alliance during snap parliamentary elections scheduled for October 29.
The Situation and Why It Matters
Early legislative elections were triggered after the collapse of the outgoing administration in the summer, when far-right figure the Freedom party leader withdrew his party from an increasingly fractious and largely ineffective ruling coalition.
The PVV had achieved a surprising first place in the previous general election, and after prolonged talks formed a unstable multi-party conservative alliance with the populist Farmer-Citizen Movement, centrist New Social Contract and liberal-conservative VVD.
Nevertheless, Wilders' coalition partners considered him too toxic for the prime minister position, which ultimately went to a former intelligence chief. Wilders, an immigration-skeptic polemicist who has required security detail for two decades, resorted to criticizing from the sidelines.
Wilders finally caused the government collapse on 3 June after his allies declined to implement a far-reaching comprehensive immigration restriction proposal that included deploying the army to guard frontiers, rejecting all asylum seekers, closing most refugee hostels and sending home all Syria nationals.
Although support for the PVV has decreased, polls indicate the far-right, Islam-critical party is again likely to win the most seats in parliament. However, main Dutch political parties have collectively rejected entering a formal coalition with Wilders.
No fewer than sixteen political groups are predicted to enter parliament, but no single party is expected to win more than approximately 20% of the vote. Typically, the future Netherlands administration, generally an significant force on the EU and world stage, will emerge only after alliance talks that could take several months.
Electoral Mechanics and Party Environment
The parliament contains 150 MPs in the Netherlands legislature, meaning a government needs 76 mandates to form a majority. No individual group typically achieves this, and the Holland has been ruled by coalitions for more than a century.
Parliament is elected quadrennially – sooner when governments collapse – through party-list system, based on an approved list of contenders in a single, nationwide constituency: any political group that wins 0.67% of the vote is guaranteed a seat.
Similar to many European nations, Dutch politics have been characterized in recent decades by a sharp decline in support for the historical ruling parties from the moderate right and left, whose electoral support has decreased from over four-fifths in the 1980s to barely two-fifths now.
In the Netherlands, this trend has been accompanied by a remarkable multiplication of smaller parties: 27 are running this time, including a party for the over-50s, a party for youth, a animal rights party, a party for universal basic income, and a sports-focused party.
Major Parties and Main Issues
In the lead is Wilders' PVV, forecast to drop as many as eight of the 37 seats it secured last election. It advocates, among other measures, a total moratorium on asylum, Ukrainian men to be returned, the army to fight "urban violence", and an end to "progressive education" in schools.
Two parties, of the moderate right and left, are neck-and-neck behind the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) led Dutch politics from the end of the seventies to the beginning of the nineties, and again in the early 2000s, but dropped to only five mandates in the previous poll.
However, under its young leader, its youthful rising star, who joined political life just recently, the party has recovered strongly with a electoral platform highlighting the severe Netherlands housing shortage and a promise of "reasonable, respectful governance". It is on course for as many as 26 seats.
GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an political partnership between the environmentalist party and the 80-year-old Dutch Labour party that is expected to become a full-blown merger, is on track to secure comparable seats, according to survey data.
Led by the experienced former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, it has made building more new homes its primary focus, and has debatedly proposed a net migration cap of between forty to sixty thousand people a year in its manifesto.
Three other parties look likely to be significant forces in the next legislature.
The center-left D66 is on course to gain seats – capturing up to 17, from its current nine – under its direct-speaking young leader, with a campaign focused on residential construction (it plans to build 10 new cities) and an "individual basic benefit" for recipients.
The center-right VVD, the party of the former prime minister (now NATO leader), is forecast to slump to no more than sixteen mandates from its current 24, with its leader, criticized of moving the group excessively rightward, blamed for its decline. It is proposing business tax cuts and less welfare.
The anti-establishment, hardline conservative JA21 is a spin-off from a different rightwing formation – the once popular, now controversy-plagued Forum for Democracy – and seems to be benefiting from an departure of voters from the PVV, BBB and VVD. It could secure fourteen mandates.
Besides the two main rightwing parties, both other partners in the unsuccessful outgoing coalition, the BBB and NSC, are expected to decline, with the NSC not even guaranteed legislative seats.
The top issues currently have been immigration, with multiple – sometimes violent – protests against proposed asylum facilities for refugee applicants, the cost of living, and the chronic Netherlands issue of accommodation (the nation is lacking 400,000 homes).
Possible Coalition Scenarios
Considering the deeply divided state of Netherlands political landscape, what alliances are feasible is equally significant as who finishes first (or in this case, more likely second, since no significant group will govern with Wilders, who insists he wants to lead a minority government).
Following the vote, MPs first appoint an informateur, who explores possible alliances. Once a workable alliance has been identified, a formateur, usually the head of the biggest prospective member, begins negotiating the formal coalition agreement. This often requires months.
Various combinations look possible, typically including a combination of parties from centre left and center right. The most likely, according to coalition experts, include CDA and GL/PvdA, plus D66 and one or more smaller parties possibly incorporating the conservative party.
